John Norling, CFA; Head of Wealth Research, FNZC
What are some of your career highlights so far?
The sobering impact of the ’87 stock market crash and the GFC. The realization that the efficient market hypothesis is just that, a hypothesis. That through the development and implementation of a robust investment process that it is possible to beat an index. The realization that winning as a long only investor is probably more about avoiding the losers than picking the winners. The discovery of the power of quantitative analysis as an initial screen for selecting equities to own and sell.
What do you like most about your job/industry?
1. The people. They come in all shapes and sizes, some are rouges, some are just really good people. They have an array of different ideas, views and approaches to investing, running companies or whatever it is they do.
2. The variation. While we can certainly learn from history, and history has a horrible tendency of repeating itself, the future is never quite the same as the past. Forecasting the future is impossible. However, it is possible to think about the future, particularly the next 12-24 months, and assess the likelihood of various events unfolding, and more importantly assessing what financial markets appear to be pricing in.
What are your interests outside work?
Family (which now includes a grandchild), bridge, developing a 34 acre rural block north of Wellington, reading and hiking.
Make a prediction for 2023
In this industry who knows, I may even be retired. By that time we will probably be in the early stages of the next bull market. I strongly suspect that there will be an even greater impact from regulation and compliance than there is now.