If bond yields continue their march higher, the most dangerous earthquake will happen in the global real estate market. If higher bond yields caused even a 10 percent decline in the $300 trillion global real estate market it would unleash a deflationary impulse equal to one third of world GDP. This would make any preceding inflationary impulse feel like a waltz in the park. For long-term investors who can ride out near term pain, there are three important conclusions:
- The ultimate low in bond yields is still ahead of us.
- The structural bull market in stocks will continue until bond yields reach their ultimate low.
- Equity investors should structurally tilt towards ‘growth’ sectors that will benefit from the ultimate low in bond yields.
Dhaval Joshi will present his research, followed by a short interview with Craig Stobo and questions from the audience.
This is a live webinar event, free for members.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Dhaval is currently BCA Research’s Chief Strategist, Counterpoint. Previously, Dhaval held the role of BCA Research’s Chief Strategist, European Investment Strategy. Prior to joining BCA, he held positions as Chief Strategist at RAB Capital, and Global Strategist at Société Générale, where he received the Extel award for best new pan-European analyst in 2000. Dhaval spent the 1990s as an Investment Manager at JP Morgan Fleming where he managed $1 billion of global mandates, specializing in applied behavioral finance. Dhaval holds an MA from Cambridge University, England and is an Affiliate of the Institute of Actuaries.
Craig Stobo, Associate Member CFA Society NZ, CFInstD
Craig has worked as a diplomat, economist, investment banker and was CEO of BT Funds Management (NZ) Ltd. He has authored reports for the NZ Government on the Taxation of Investment Income (which led to the PIE tax regime for managed funds); and the creation of a funds domicile in NZ; and provided specialist advice to government and private sector clients.
He is an independent Chair of the Local Government Funding Agency, AIG Insurance New Zealand and NZX-listed Precinct Properties. He is also Chair and shareholder of private companies including Elevation Capital Management, Saturn Portfolio Management, Biomarine Group and Legend Terrace.
He has BA (Hons) Economics, First Class, from Otago University and Advanced Management Programme from Wharton.